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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+6.85vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.61+10.66vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.69+9.27vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.68vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+3.05vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.43+2.95vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.70+0.85vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.27+1.54vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.35+0.27vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College1.70+2.23vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+1.40vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.40-6.48vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-6.35vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.86-7.01vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.38-5.86vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-4.42vs Predicted
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17Boston University2.07-6.36vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.46-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.85Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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12.66Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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12.27Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.68U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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8.95Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.85Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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9.54University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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9.27University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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12.23Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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12.4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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5.52Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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6.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.99Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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9.14Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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11.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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10.64Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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12.73North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 14.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 13.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Dana Haig | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| matthew Monts | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 13.3% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 13.8% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% |
| Micky Munns | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 16.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.