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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.58vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.75+10.45vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.89+1.66vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.44+5.53vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.06+2.31vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.72+2.68vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.70+1.73vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.98-0.44vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-3.14vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56-0.57vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy4.09-3.63vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.63-2.73vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.80-4.83vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-3.95vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.11-4.12vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University2.41-2.63vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.50-1.33vs Predicted
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18Columbia University0.95-1.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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12.45University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
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4.66Boston College4.890.2%1st Place
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9.53Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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7.31Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.68Stanford University3.720.0%1st Place
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8.73Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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7.56Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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5.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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9.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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7.37U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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9.27Boston University3.630.0%1st Place
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8.17Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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10.05University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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10.88University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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13.37Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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15.67Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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16.42Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ingham | 11.5% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Hansel | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 10.5% | 3.2% |
| Tyler Sinks | 16.4% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Miller | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Sam Williams | 6.9% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin Smith | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 11.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Whitman | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Perkins | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Quentin Chafee | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 20.0% | 14.3% | 8.6% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 12.0% | 31.4% | 30.9% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 8.4% | 22.0% | 53.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.