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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.48vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+5.35vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+4.81vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.43+4.37vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.70+2.33vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.35+2.81vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.55+0.94vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+3.77vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.27+0.11vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.07+0.28vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.22-1.48vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.70-0.12vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.43-4.65vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.61-2.40vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-3.96vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.69-4.27vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.17-3.29vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.50-10.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.35Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.81Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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8.37Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.33Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.81University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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7.94U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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11.77St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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9.11University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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10.28Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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9.52Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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11.88Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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8.35Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.6Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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11.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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11.73Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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13.71North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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7.92Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Dana Haig | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Jack Welburn | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Micky Munns | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Jed Bell | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| matthew Monts | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 10.9% |
| Meredith Moran | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.3% |
| Harrison Bailey | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 27.4% |
| Cameron Wood | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.