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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.47vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.52vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.70+4.60vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+3.52vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.27+4.12vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.43+2.57vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.09+2.94vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.55-0.06vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+2.93vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.43-1.18vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.50-2.58vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.70-0.11vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.22-3.73vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.61-2.40vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.07-5.02vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-4.80vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.17-3.29vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.69-6.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.47Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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6.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.6Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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7.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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9.12University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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8.57Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.94University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
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7.94U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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11.93St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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8.82Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.42Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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11.89Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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9.27Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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11.6Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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9.98Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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11.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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13.71North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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11.5Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 12.8% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 7.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Dana Haig | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Meredith Moran | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| Jack Welburn | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| matthew Monts | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 11.6% |
| Jed Bell | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 10.1% |
| Micky Munns | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% |
| Harrison Bailey | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 27.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.