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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College4.89+3.20vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+3.53vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.72+5.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+1.14vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.80+2.72vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.06+1.13vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+1.78vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.98-0.90vs Predicted
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9Princeton University1.50+5.81vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.11+0.25vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.75+0.58vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-2.31vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.44-3.79vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.63-5.41vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.95+0.58vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University2.41-3.45vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy4.09-10.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2Boston College4.890.2%1st Place
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5.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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8.17Stanford University3.720.0%1st Place
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5.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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7.72Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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7.13Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.78St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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7.1Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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14.81Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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10.25University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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11.58University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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9.21Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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8.59Boston University3.630.0%1st Place
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15.58Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
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12.55Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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6.97U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Sinks | 20.0% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Ingham | 13.5% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sam Williams | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Colin Smith | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 11.8% | 32.7% | 29.8% |
| Quentin Chafee | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 1.5% |
| Stephen Hansel | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 4.3% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Peter Miller | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Perkins | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 18.9% | 56.2% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 6.2% |
| Clark Hayes | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.