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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+6.12vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.81+6.82vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+7.78vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.54+1.70vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.50+4.78vs Predicted
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6Florida State University2.38+4.40vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53+2.72vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.06-0.53vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.82-0.55vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.45+0.31vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.75+1.98vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.10-4.33vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.99-5.26vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-4.87vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-3.14vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.23-9.02vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-1.90vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.18-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.12Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.82Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.78University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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5.7Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.78Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.4Florida State University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.72Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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7.47SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.45Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.31Connecticut College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.98University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
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7.67College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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7.74Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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9.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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11.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
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6.98University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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15.1University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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11.0Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| William Michels | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
| Reed Weston | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 43.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.