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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+4.94vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+5.08vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+6.73vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.53+5.61vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.99+2.79vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.22+0.90vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.50+2.88vs Predicted
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8Florida State University2.38+2.28vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+1.55vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.75+3.08vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-3.55vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.45-1.58vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.06-5.63vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.82-5.79vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.07-0.02vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.18-4.76vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.81-8.29vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-6.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.94Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.08University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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9.61Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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7.79Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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6.9Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.88Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.28Florida State University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.55University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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13.08University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
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7.45College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.42Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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7.37SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.21Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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14.98University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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11.24Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.71Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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11.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.9% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Reed Weston | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| William Michels | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 42.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 6.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.