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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+5.10vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+3.38vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.26+4.21vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.33+3.08vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.79+3.89vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.73+3.16vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.38-0.18vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.37-1.35vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.69+3.39vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.79-1.08vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.98+0.54vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-5.53vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38-6.27vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.85-1.98vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia1.69-3.42vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02-9.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.1University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.1%1st Place
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7.21St. Mary's College of Maryland3.260.1%1st Place
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7.08Georgetown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.89University of Pennsylvania2.790.0%1st Place
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9.16Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.82Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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6.65U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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12.39University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Naval Academy2.790.1%1st Place
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11.54St. Mary's College of Maryland1.980.0%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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6.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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12.02Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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12.58University of Virginia1.690.0%1st Place
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8.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Sam Padnos | 13.3% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Lamphere | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Eichler | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Amanda Johnson | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.2% | 2.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| Hugh McBride | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| William Pilling | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 23.7% |
| James Allsopp | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Ainsley Thomson | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 17.2% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Ike Babbitt | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 17.7% | 18.7% |
| Chris Kennedy | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 18.6% | 27.0% |
| Evan Siepert | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.