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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.98+6.09vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.89+2.30vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+2.06vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.80+3.93vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+0.52vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.11+4.48vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College4.06+0.02vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.44+0.98vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy4.09-2.03vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.72-1.98vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.50+3.67vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.75-0.54vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.63-4.38vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-4.10vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56-6.28vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University2.41-3.43vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.95-1.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.09Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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4.3Boston College4.890.2%1st Place
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5.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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7.93Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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5.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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10.48University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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7.02Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.98Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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6.97U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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8.02Stanford University3.720.0%1st Place
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14.67Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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11.46University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
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8.62Boston University3.630.1%1st Place
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9.9University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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8.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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12.57Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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15.69Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Smith | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 17.6% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| David Thompson | 12.7% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 0.8% |
| Sam Williams | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Miller | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Clark Hayes | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 13.6% | 30.0% | 30.8% |
| Stephen Hansel | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 10.6% | 3.2% |
| Daniel Perkins | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 0.6% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 16.6% | 17.9% | 6.8% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 20.8% | 56.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.