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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.84vs Predicted
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2Florida State University1.97+9.13vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.82+4.69vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+3.58vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.35+4.29vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.50+2.85vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.32vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.39-2.60vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.90+2.13vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.93-2.70vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.69vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.83-0.27vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.65-4.95vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.25-0.75vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-4.03vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-2.95vs Predicted
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17Boston College3.07-10.29vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.53-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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11.13Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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7.69Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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9.29College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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8.85Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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9.32SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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5.4Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.13Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.3Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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9.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.73University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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8.05Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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13.25University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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10.97Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.05University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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6.71Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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15.41University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 15.1% | 15.5% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| James Paul | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% |
| Scott Mais | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Jonathan Riley | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 6.4% |
| Christopher Lukens | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 3.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 13.4% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 45.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.