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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+7.23vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.23+4.41vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+2.01vs Predicted
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4Florida State University1.97+7.01vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.65+3.42vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.07+0.82vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.35+2.69vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.39-2.33vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.35+0.57vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.90+1.56vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.82-3.06vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.34-2.01vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-0.05vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.93-3.02vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-5.60vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University2.93-8.60vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.10-0.56vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.25-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.41Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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5.01Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.01Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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8.42Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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6.82Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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9.69College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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5.67Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.57SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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11.56Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.94Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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9.99University of Rhode Island2.340.0%1st Place
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12.95University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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10.98Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.4Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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16.44University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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13.5University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 3.1% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.2% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 4.8% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Ted McDonough | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 17.4% | 9.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 2.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Scott Mais | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 14.5% | 61.8% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 18.4% | 13.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.