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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+12.18vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.39+3.86vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.90+8.63vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.64+0.85vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.93+6.16vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.82+1.75vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+1.02vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.23-1.76vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.34+0.70vs Predicted
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10Florida State University1.97+1.35vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.65-2.37vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.93-4.29vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.07-6.35vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.86vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.35-5.44vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.32vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.10-0.61vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.25-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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13.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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5.86Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.63Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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4.85Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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11.16Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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7.75Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.24Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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9.7University of Rhode Island2.340.0%1st Place
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11.35Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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8.63Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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7.71Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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6.65Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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9.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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9.56College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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9.68SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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16.39University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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13.5University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 17.0% | 12.6% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.6% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 3.7% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 9.9% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Scott Mais | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 7.2% | 14.0% | 60.4% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 21.0% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.