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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+6.67vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.93+5.05vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.39+2.42vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.35+5.01vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.82+2.28vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+3.00vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.24+6.23vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.90+2.75vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.58vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.34-0.57vs Predicted
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11Florida State University1.97-0.30vs Predicted
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12Boston College3.07-5.32vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.65-5.23vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston2.35-5.13vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.23-9.24vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.13-5.98vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.10-0.75vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.11-4.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.05Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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5.42Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.01SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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7.28Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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9.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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13.23Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.75Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.58University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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9.43University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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10.7Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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6.68Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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7.77Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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8.87College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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5.76Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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10.02Harvard University2.130.0%1st Place
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16.25University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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13.53University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Scott Mais | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 10.9% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 11.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 1.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 7.3% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 2.7% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Hansen | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 58.6% |
| Abe Weston | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 20.5% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.