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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+8.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+10.88vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.39+2.40vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.23+1.73vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+3.97vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.65+2.00vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+0.46vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.24+5.11vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.34+0.12vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.93-2.89vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.82-3.57vs Predicted
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12Florida State University1.97-1.09vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.07-6.74vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston2.35-5.19vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.11-1.41vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.90-4.98vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.13-6.93vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.10-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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12.88University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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5.4Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.73Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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8.97SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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8.0Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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7.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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13.11Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Rhode Island2.340.0%1st Place
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7.11Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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7.43Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.91Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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6.26Boston College3.070.1%1st Place
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8.81College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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13.59University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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11.02Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.07Harvard University2.130.0%1st Place
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16.02University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Ted McDonough | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 7.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.0% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.9% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 18.7% | 11.8% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Scott Mais | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Abe Weston | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 18.3% | 15.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
| Eric Hansen | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 16.0% | 54.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.