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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College4.89+3.79vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+4.05vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.75+9.47vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.63+4.84vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.44+4.55vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.98+1.67vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+2.23vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-2.70vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.80-0.69vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.72-1.14vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-0.53vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy4.09-4.43vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.50+2.47vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.70-5.54vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.11-4.13vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University2.41-2.66vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.95-0.46vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College4.06-10.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Boston College4.890.2%1st Place
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6.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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12.47University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
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8.84Boston University3.630.0%1st Place
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9.55Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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7.67Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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9.23St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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5.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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8.31Yale University3.800.0%1st Place
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8.86Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.47University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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7.57U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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15.47Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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8.46Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.87University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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13.34Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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16.54Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
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7.21Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Sinks | 16.0% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 9.9% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Hansel | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% |
| Daniel Perkins | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Peter Miller | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Colin Smith | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Ingham | 12.3% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Toole | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 11.5% | 29.0% | 30.3% |
| Massimo Soriano | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Quentin Chafee | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 7.4% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 20.4% | 55.5% |
| Sam Williams | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.