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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.80+7.53vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.63+7.18vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+3.20vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.98+3.55vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.89-0.47vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-0.68vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy4.09+0.24vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.11+2.81vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+0.17vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+0.58vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.72-2.28vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College3.44-1.96vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.70-4.49vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College4.06-6.88vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University2.41-1.73vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.50-0.39vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.95-0.40vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.75-6.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.53Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.18Boston University3.630.0%1st Place
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6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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7.55Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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4.53Boston College4.890.2%1st Place
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5.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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10.81University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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9.17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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8.72Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.04Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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8.51Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.12Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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13.27Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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15.61Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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16.6Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
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12.0University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Segerblom | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Perkins | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| David Thompson | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Smith | 7.3% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Sinks | 19.2% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 12.3% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 1.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Peter Miller | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Massimo Soriano | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sam Williams | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 6.2% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 29.5% | 30.7% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 21.9% | 56.4% |
| Stephen Hansel | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.