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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+5.22vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+3.52vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.89+1.66vs Predicted
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4Brown University4.30+2.45vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.72+3.53vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.70+2.68vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+2.26vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.80+0.23vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.44+0.65vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+0.58vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy4.09-3.64vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College4.06-4.34vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University2.41+0.16vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.75-2.07vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.50+0.57vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.95+0.57vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.35-6.80vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont3.11-7.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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5.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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4.66Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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6.45Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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8.53Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.68Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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8.23Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.65Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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7.36U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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7.66Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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13.16Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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11.93University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
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15.57Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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16.57Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
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10.2Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Thompson | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 14.7% | 16.0% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Fink | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 5.4% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Peter Miller | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 0.8% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 7.2% |
| Stephen Hansel | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 3.7% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 32.4% | 28.0% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 7.6% | 19.8% | 57.4% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Quentin Chafee | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.