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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.59+6.21vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.38+5.86vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.13+2.55vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.28+4.29vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.55-0.45vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.56+1.42vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.63+0.15vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College0.17+3.70vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.69-2.09vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College0.56+0.69vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College0.53-0.29vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.31-6.72vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.63-8.58vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College0.02-1.99vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University0.68-4.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.21Dartmouth College1.590.1%1st Place
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7.86Roger Williams University1.380.1%1st Place
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5.55Brown University2.130.1%1st Place
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8.29Brown University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.55Brown University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.42Roger Williams University1.560.1%1st Place
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7.15Roger Williams University1.630.1%1st Place
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11.7Dartmouth College0.170.0%1st Place
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6.91Brown University1.690.1%1st Place
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10.69Dartmouth College0.560.0%1st Place
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10.71Dartmouth College0.530.0%1st Place
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5.28Dartmouth College2.310.1%1st Place
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4.42Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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12.01Dartmouth College0.020.0%1st Place
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10.24Roger Williams University0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Sheppard | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Luke Hosek | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Ethan Simpson | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sidney Moyer | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Martins Atilla | 16.4% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Burt | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| William Bailey | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 19.0% | 24.9% |
| Connor Macken | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Xander Dalke | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 13.2% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 14.8% |
| Olivia Drulard | 10.9% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Laura Hamilton | 16.4% | 15.3% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Eggena | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 18.2% | 29.6% |
| Yasar Akin | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.