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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.54vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.89+2.69vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College4.06+4.58vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+1.95vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.35+4.97vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+4.36vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.80+1.29vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.44+1.64vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.70-0.31vs Predicted
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10Brown University4.30-3.26vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.75+1.31vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy4.09-4.45vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56-3.90vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University2.41-0.93vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.72-6.45vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.95+0.56vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.50-1.39vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont3.11-7.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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4.69Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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7.58Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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5.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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9.97Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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10.36University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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8.29Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.64Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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8.69Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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6.74Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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12.31University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
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7.55U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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9.1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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13.07Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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8.55Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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16.56Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
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15.61Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ingham | 12.3% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 13.4% | 14.3% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Miller | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Fink | 9.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Hansel | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 15.9% | 10.8% | 3.6% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 15.8% | 7.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 20.0% | 56.4% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 12.3% | 31.3% | 29.6% |
| Quentin Chafee | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.