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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+6.82vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+3.28vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+4.61vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+1.76vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.29vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.25+3.50vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.12+3.01vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.29-2.41vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.45-0.39vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.95vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.30-1.52vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.90-0.82vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.63-5.16vs Predicted
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14Olin College of Engineering0.52+1.09vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.08-1.28vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.43-3.28vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University1.06-3.06vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.69-6.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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5.28Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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5.76University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.29Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.5Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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10.01Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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5.59Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.61Dartmouth College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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9.48Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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11.18Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.84Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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15.09Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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13.72University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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12.72Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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13.94Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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11.51Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.7% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Will Priebe | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.5% | 15.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Shea Smith | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| Mason Stang | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| James Jagielski | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 38.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 10.6% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 20.4% | 18.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.