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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+6.55vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+5.71vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.42+2.33vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.69vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+2.45vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23-0.15vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.45+1.79vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.25+1.43vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.30+0.24vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90+1.08vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.63-2.87vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.12-1.66vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.29-7.44vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.69-2.65vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.08-1.20vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.43-3.33vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering0.52-1.61vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University1.06-4.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.55Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.71Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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5.33Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.69Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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5.85University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.79Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.43Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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9.24Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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11.08Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.13Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.34Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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5.56Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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11.35Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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13.8University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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12.67Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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15.39Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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13.65Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 11.5% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.3% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Shea Smith | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 3.1% |
| Mason Stang | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Will Priebe | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.5% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 4.4% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 10.2% |
| James Jagielski | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 41.6% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 17.3% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.