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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.63+7.21vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+5.99vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.29+2.78vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.25+5.42vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.31vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+1.51vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.75+0.58vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.30+1.21vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.90+1.87vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.23-3.99vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.12-0.86vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University1.06+2.06vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.42-7.88vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.45-5.53vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.08-1.27vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.52-0.64vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.69-5.18vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.43-5.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.21Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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5.78Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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9.42Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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7.31Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.58Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.21Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.87Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.01University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.14Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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14.06Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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5.12Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.47Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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13.73University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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15.36Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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11.82Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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12.39Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Stephan Baker | 9.7% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Shea Smith | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 4.6% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 16.9% | 22.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 13.7% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 17.7% | 16.3% |
| James Jagielski | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 17.0% | 40.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.