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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+4.38vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+6.07vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+4.68vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.81+3.19vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.75+2.51vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23-0.18vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.29-1.38vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.12+1.92vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.63-1.07vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.30-0.44vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.45-2.09vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.08+2.04vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.25-3.62vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.69-2.69vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University1.06-1.18vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.90-5.01vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.43-4.27vs Predicted
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18Olin College of Engineering0.52-2.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.19Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.51Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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5.82University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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5.62Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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9.92Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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7.93Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.56Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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8.91Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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14.04University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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9.38Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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11.31Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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13.82Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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10.99Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.73Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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15.16Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 12.2% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.0% |
| Mason Stang | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 22.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.1% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 17.7% | 16.8% |
| Shea Smith | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| James Jagielski | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 37.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.