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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.54vs Predicted
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2Brown University4.30+4.68vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.44+6.90vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+1.92vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University2.41+8.17vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.89-1.43vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+2.22vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.72+0.51vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.75+3.24vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.80-1.47vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College4.06-3.51vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-1.33vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy4.09-5.88vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.50+1.43vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.11-4.15vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.95+0.55vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.35-6.85vs Predicted
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18Tufts University3.70-9.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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6.68Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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9.9Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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13.17Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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4.57Boston College4.890.2%1st Place
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9.22St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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8.51Stanford University3.720.0%1st Place
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12.24University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
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8.53Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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7.49Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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15.43Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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10.85University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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16.55Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
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10.15Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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8.48Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ingham | 11.9% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Fink | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Peter Miller | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| David Thompson | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 17.3% | 17.8% | 7.2% |
| Tyler Sinks | 17.0% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Toole | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Hansel | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 2.5% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sam Williams | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Clark Hayes | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 12.1% | 28.7% | 28.2% |
| Quentin Chafee | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 57.4% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 0.6% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.