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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+4.40vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+5.74vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.30+6.58vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.68vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.29+0.58vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.63+2.00vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.25+2.45vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.75-0.51vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.23-3.26vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.45-1.05vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.81-3.61vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.90-0.82vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.69-1.49vs Predicted
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14Olin College of Engineering0.52+1.09vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.12-5.04vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.43-3.30vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University1.06-3.09vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont1.08-4.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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9.58Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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7.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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5.58Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.0Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.45Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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7.49Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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5.74University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.95Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.39Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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11.18Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.51Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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15.09Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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9.96Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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12.7Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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13.91Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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13.64University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 12.7% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Shea Smith | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 6.0% |
| James Jagielski | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 38.6% |
| Will Priebe | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 9.9% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 19.6% | 18.8% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.