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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Saint Thomas0.99+4.11vs Predicted
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2University of Washington1.83+1.04vs Predicted
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3University of Washington-1.39+3.81vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.15+0.26vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.31+1.74vs Predicted
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6University of Oregon0.11+1.88vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University0.50-0.55vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.06-0.04vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.54-2.60vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University-0.38-0.62vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.18-3.60vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-1.64vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University-1.06-2.41vs Predicted
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14University of Oregon-2.06-1.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.11University of Saint Thomas0.9910.3%1st Place
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3.04University of Washington1.8328.5%1st Place
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6.81University of Washington-1.395.9%1st Place
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4.26University of Washington1.1516.4%1st Place
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6.74Western Washington University0.315.4%1st Place
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7.88University of Oregon0.114.8%1st Place
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6.45Northeastern University0.506.6%1st Place
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7.96University of Washington-0.064.5%1st Place
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6.4Western Washington University0.546.2%1st Place
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9.38Northwestern University-0.382.5%1st Place
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7.4University of Washington0.185.5%1st Place
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10.36University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.3%1st Place
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10.59Western Washington University-1.061.7%1st Place
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12.61University of Oregon-2.060.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Bartel | 10.3% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Stone | 28.5% | 21.1% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Smith | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Nairn | 16.4% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Emily Avey | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 1.9% |
| Carter Anderson | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Enzo Dougherty | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Gerber | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| George Warfel | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 5.8% |
| Jaden Unruh | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 20.1% | 13.5% |
| Peter Hall | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| ella notdurft | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 16.1% | 58.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.