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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+5.20vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+3.53vs Predicted
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3Boston College4.89+1.72vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.70+4.61vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.44+4.66vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy4.09+1.31vs Predicted
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7Brown University4.30-0.45vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.35+1.92vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.80-0.71vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.75+2.33vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-0.48vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.11-0.75vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College4.06-5.76vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56-5.02vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.72-6.46vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.50-0.44vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University2.41-3.64vs Predicted
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18Columbia University0.95-1.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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4.72Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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8.61Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.66Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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7.31U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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6.55Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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9.92Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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8.29Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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12.33University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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11.25University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.98St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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8.54Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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15.56Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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13.36Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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16.41Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Thompson | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 14.5% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Peter Miller | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Tommy Fink | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Hansel | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 3.0% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Quentin Chafee | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% |
| Sam Williams | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Toole | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 29.1% | 29.6% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 19.5% | 16.6% | 7.1% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 21.5% | 54.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.