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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Saint Thomas0.99+4.08vs Predicted
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2University of Washington1.83+0.99vs Predicted
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3University of Oregon0.11+5.07vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University0.50+2.46vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.15-0.61vs Predicted
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6University of Washington-0.06+1.89vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.54-0.73vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University-0.38+1.46vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.18-1.57vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-1.39-3.12vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-0.66vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.31-5.44vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University-1.06-2.43vs Predicted
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14University of Oregon-2.06-1.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08University of Saint Thomas0.999.3%1st Place
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2.99University of Washington1.8327.8%1st Place
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8.07University of Oregon0.114.5%1st Place
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6.46Northeastern University0.507.3%1st Place
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4.39University of Washington1.1515.5%1st Place
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7.89University of Washington-0.064.2%1st Place
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6.27Western Washington University0.547.0%1st Place
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9.46Northwestern University-0.382.0%1st Place
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7.43University of Washington0.185.1%1st Place
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6.88University of Washington-1.396.7%1st Place
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10.34University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.2%1st Place
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6.56Western Washington University0.317.0%1st Place
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10.57Western Washington University-1.061.7%1st Place
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12.6University of Oregon-2.060.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Bartel | 9.3% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 27.8% | 22.6% | 17.8% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Avey | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 2.1% |
| Carter Anderson | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Oliver Nairn | 15.5% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Dougherty | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Gerber | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| George Warfel | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 6.9% |
| Jaden Unruh | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Emily Smith | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 16.9% | 19.7% | 11.5% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Peter Hall | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 15.3% | 23.5% | 15.3% |
| ella notdurft | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 59.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.