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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.59vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+4.12vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College4.06+4.56vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.72+4.48vs Predicted
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5Brown University4.30+1.44vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.80+2.36vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy4.09+0.23vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.11+2.88vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.70-0.31vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+0.62vs Predicted
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11Boston College4.89-6.32vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.35-1.70vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56-3.88vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University2.41-1.00vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.50+0.60vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College3.44-6.26vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.95-0.42vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.75-5.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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6.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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7.56Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.48Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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6.44Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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8.36Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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10.88University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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8.69Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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10.62University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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4.68Boston College4.890.2%1st Place
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10.3Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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9.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.0%1st Place
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13.0Northwestern University2.410.0%1st Place
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15.6Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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9.74Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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16.58Columbia University0.950.0%1st Place
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12.01University of Rhode Island2.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ingham | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Fink | 9.5% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Quentin Chafee | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Sinks | 17.2% | 14.6% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Matt Johnson | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Frederick Whitman | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Eric DeFeo | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 16.5% | 5.6% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 29.5% | 30.1% |
| Peter Miller | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Stephanie Hart | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 7.1% | 20.2% | 57.1% |
| Stephen Hansel | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.