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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.99vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+2.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+6.33vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.27+3.50vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.58+2.48vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.45+4.86vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.83+2.24vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.38+0.21vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-1.59vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.23vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.93+0.03vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.12+0.20vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.70-2.88vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.34-6.59vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.62-4.76vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.70-2.00vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.26-6.00vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.17-0.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99Yale University2.8510.1%1st Place
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4.15Stanford University3.3019.7%1st Place
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9.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.2%1st Place
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7.5Georgetown University2.277.3%1st Place
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7.48Boston College2.587.8%1st Place
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10.86University of South Florida1.454.2%1st Place
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9.24Tufts University1.834.0%1st Place
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8.21College of Charleston2.386.5%1st Place
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7.41Bowdoin College2.067.2%1st Place
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7.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.3%1st Place
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11.03University of Miami1.932.7%1st Place
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12.2North Carolina State University1.121.4%1st Place
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10.12Jacksonville University1.704.2%1st Place
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7.41Dartmouth College2.346.9%1st Place
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10.24Fordham University1.623.5%1st Place
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14.0University of Wisconsin0.701.4%1st Place
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11.0Old Dominion University1.262.5%1st Place
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17.07University of Texas-1.170.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 10.1% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 19.7% | 17.0% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Peter Barnard | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Peter Busch | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 1.6% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 2.0% |
| Benjamin Usher | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 3.2% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 0.7% |
| Chase Decker | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 1.6% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 28.7% | 10.9% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 1.9% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 9.4% | 76.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.