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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.05+8.44vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.51+5.63vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University2.38+8.91vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.41+3.76vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.90+4.67vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.66+0.91vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.38+0.96vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.64+2.69vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+1.14vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.55-2.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.78-0.61vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.89-5.63vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.18-4.45vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-8.61vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38-7.14vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.13-7.00vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.77+0.44vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.21-1.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.44Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.63University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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11.91Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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7.76Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.67Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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6.91Connecticut College3.660.1%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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10.69University of Rhode Island2.640.0%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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7.54Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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10.39University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.0%1st Place
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6.37Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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8.55Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.39St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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7.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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9.0Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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17.44Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
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16.35Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Shea | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Factor | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 18.8% | 8.0% | 0.4% |
| John Meleney | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Michael Marshall | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lyle Fielding | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 0.2% |
| Bradley Milliken | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Mullins | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Foster | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Renehan | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.4% | 15.3% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ike Babbitt | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Burd | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 3.3% | 19.4% | 73.6% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 6.5% | 55.8% | 24.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.