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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.18+6.41vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.54+4.45vs Predicted
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3University of Saint Thomas0.99+2.10vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.83-0.95vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.31+1.75vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.50+0.47vs Predicted
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7University of Washington-0.06+0.86vs Predicted
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8University of Oregon0.11+0.31vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University-0.38+0.53vs Predicted
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10University of Washington1.15-5.60vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University-1.06-0.27vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-1.50vs Predicted
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13University of Washington-1.39-6.09vs Predicted
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14University of Oregon-1.36-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.41University of Washington0.185.7%1st Place
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6.45Western Washington University0.546.7%1st Place
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5.1University of Saint Thomas0.9910.7%1st Place
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3.05University of Washington1.8327.4%1st Place
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6.75Western Washington University0.316.6%1st Place
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6.47Northeastern University0.506.6%1st Place
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7.86University of Washington-0.064.9%1st Place
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8.31University of Oregon0.113.5%1st Place
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9.53Northwestern University-0.382.5%1st Place
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4.4University of Washington1.1515.6%1st Place
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10.73Western Washington University-1.061.7%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.5%1st Place
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6.91University of Washington-1.396.1%1st Place
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11.55University of Oregon-1.360.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Unruh | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Gerber | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Rachel Bartel | 10.7% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Stone | 27.4% | 21.5% | 17.0% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Carter Anderson | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Enzo Dougherty | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Emily Avey | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 3.6% |
| George Warfel | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 10.6% |
| Oliver Nairn | 15.6% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hall | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 17.4% | 25.2% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 18.8% | 18.9% |
| Emily Smith | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Molly McLeod | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 20.1% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.