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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.66+6.05vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.55+5.48vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+7.34vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.89+2.00vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.05+4.15vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.38+1.94vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.41+0.83vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38-0.09vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.18-0.32vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.51-2.28vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.13-1.95vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.78-1.38vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.21+3.37vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.90-4.49vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University2.37-3.30vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-10.37vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.77+0.42vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.64-7.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.05Connecticut College3.660.1%1st Place
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7.48Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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6.0Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.15Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.94U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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7.83Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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8.68Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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7.72University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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9.05Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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10.62University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.0%1st Place
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16.37Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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9.51Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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11.7Northwestern University2.370.0%1st Place
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5.63St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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17.42Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
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10.6University of Rhode Island2.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Marshall | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 7.3% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Cam Cullman | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Taylor Vann | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Meleney | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ike Babbitt | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| John Renehan | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Factor | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Burd | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Matt Foster | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 55.4% | 25.2% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Michael Cornew | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 17.4% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| Fletcher Sims | 11.5% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 21.4% | 72.1% |
| Lyle Fielding | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.