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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+4.77vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.05+7.49vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.89+3.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+5.98vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+2.89vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.66+0.86vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.18+1.72vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.90+1.79vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.51-1.63vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.55-2.43vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.41-3.07vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.38-3.71vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.13-4.22vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.78-4.00vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.64-4.27vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University2.38-4.15vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.77+0.44vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.21-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.77St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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9.49Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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6.17Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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7.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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6.86Connecticut College3.660.1%1st Place
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8.72Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.79Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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7.37University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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7.57Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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7.93Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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8.78Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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10.0University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.0%1st Place
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10.73University of Rhode Island2.640.0%1st Place
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11.85Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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17.44Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
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16.37Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 12.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 4.4% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Ike Babbitt | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Marshall | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Renehan | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Factor | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Meleney | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Burd | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Matt Foster | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Lyle Fielding | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 19.7% | 6.3% | 0.5% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 20.0% | 73.6% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 6.7% | 56.2% | 24.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.