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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.07+5.28vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.83+5.00vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+2.18vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.08+5.53vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+1.89vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.46-0.86vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College1.25+1.99vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.08+4.16vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.44-0.64vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.55-5.04vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University0.74-0.40vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.03-5.26vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.62-4.91vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-7.81vs Predicted
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15McGill University-0.97-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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7.0Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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5.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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9.53University of Rhode Island1.080.0%1st Place
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6.89Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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5.14Brown University2.460.1%1st Place
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8.99Bowdoin College1.250.0%1st Place
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12.16University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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8.36Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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4.96Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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10.6Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
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6.74Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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8.09Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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6.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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13.9McGill University-0.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Eastman | 10.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Emily Bornarth | 13.1% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Leah Rickard | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% |
| Lucy Brock | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 12.2% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christine Reimer | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 1.5% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 31.2% | 19.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 0.9% |
| Sarah Young | 12.5% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McGagh | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 18.1% | 7.7% |
| Eva Ermlich | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Ella Hubbard | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 0.2% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Weaver | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 13.4% | 66.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.