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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+5.12vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.07+4.23vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.46+2.09vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+2.77vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+0.33vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University0.74+4.57vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.83+0.07vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.25+1.05vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.55-4.13vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.08-0.37vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.62-3.14vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.03-5.27vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.44-4.36vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.08-1.82vs Predicted
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15McGill University-0.97-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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6.23Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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5.09Brown University2.460.1%1st Place
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6.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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5.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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10.57Roger Williams University0.740.0%1st Place
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7.07Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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9.05Bowdoin College1.250.0%1st Place
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4.87Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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9.63University of Rhode Island1.080.0%1st Place
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7.86Tufts University1.620.0%1st Place
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6.73Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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8.64Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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13.87McGill University-0.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Schmelz | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Taylor Eastman | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 13.0% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Brock | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Emily Bornarth | 12.9% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Katherine McGagh | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 18.0% | 16.2% | 6.5% |
| Emily Mueller | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Christine Reimer | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| Sarah Young | 13.4% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Leah Rickard | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% |
| Ella Hubbard | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 31.8% | 19.8% |
| Katherine Weaver | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 16.4% | 64.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.