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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Western Washington University-1.06+9.95vs Predicted
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2University of Washington-1.39+5.06vs Predicted
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3University of Oregon-1.36+8.54vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.83-1.01vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.54+1.30vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.31+0.62vs Predicted
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7University of Oregon0.11+1.09vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.18-0.49vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.50-2.54vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.06-2.10vs Predicted
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11University of Washington1.15-6.55vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-1.50vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University-0.38-3.60vs Predicted
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14University of Saint Thomas0.99-8.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.95Western Washington University-1.061.7%1st Place
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7.06University of Washington-1.394.9%1st Place
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11.54University of Oregon-1.360.8%1st Place
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2.99University of Washington1.8329.1%1st Place
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6.3Western Washington University0.547.6%1st Place
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6.62Western Washington University0.316.9%1st Place
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8.09University of Oregon0.114.1%1st Place
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7.51University of Washington0.185.1%1st Place
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6.46Northeastern University0.506.5%1st Place
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7.9University of Washington-0.065.2%1st Place
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4.45University of Washington1.1514.0%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.4%1st Place
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9.4Northwestern University-0.382.2%1st Place
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5.22University of Saint Thomas0.9910.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Hall | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 19.6% | 24.2% |
| Emily Smith | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Molly McLeod | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 19.1% | 36.6% |
| Benjamin Stone | 29.1% | 22.8% | 16.0% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Emily Avey | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 3.0% |
| Jaden Unruh | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Carter Anderson | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Enzo Dougherty | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Oliver Nairn | 14.0% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| George Warfel | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 9.8% |
| Rachel Bartel | 10.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.