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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.29+3.50vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.06+2.98vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.43+1.06vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.01+1.24vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.13-0.03vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College0.60+3.48vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.99+1.26vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.34-0.81vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.02-0.87vs Predicted
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10McGill University-0.31+1.93vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62-4.56vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.57-2.29vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.14-2.04vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.12-3.20vs Predicted
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15Boston University-1.11-1.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5Brown University2.290.2%1st Place
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4.98Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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4.06Dartmouth College2.430.2%1st Place
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5.24Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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4.97Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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9.48Dartmouth College0.600.0%1st Place
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8.26Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.990.0%1st Place
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7.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.340.1%1st Place
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8.13Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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11.93McGill University-0.310.0%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.1%1st Place
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9.71University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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10.96University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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10.8Northeastern University0.120.0%1st Place
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13.35Boston University-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katharine Doble | 15.9% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 11.4% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| bella casaretto | 19.1% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Russler | 13.1% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% |
| Emma Wang | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Brooke Barry | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Samantha Jensen | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Tessa Hason | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| Julia Conneely | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 10.9% |
| Sylvia Burns | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 8.7% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 18.7% | 51.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.