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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.13+3.86vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.43+2.00vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.06+2.06vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island0.14+6.72vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.29-0.40vs Predicted
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6McGill University-0.31+5.85vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62-0.65vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.99+0.35vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.02-0.83vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.57-0.41vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.01-5.67vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College0.60-2.28vs Predicted
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13Boston University-1.11+0.50vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.12-3.22vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.34-7.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.86Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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4.0Dartmouth College2.430.2%1st Place
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5.06Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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10.72University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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4.6Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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11.85McGill University-0.310.0%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.1%1st Place
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8.35Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.990.0%1st Place
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8.17Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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9.59University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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5.33Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.72Dartmouth College0.600.0%1st Place
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13.5Boston University-1.110.0%1st Place
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10.78Northeastern University0.120.0%1st Place
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7.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.340.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Russler | 14.0% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| bella casaretto | 17.6% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 11.8% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 17.3% | 8.3% |
| Katharine Doble | 13.8% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tessa Hason | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 23.8% | 18.6% |
| Julia Conneely | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Emma Wang | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Samantha Jensen | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 3.7% |
| Katherine McNamara | 11.8% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 55.4% |
| Sylvia Burns | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 16.4% | 8.5% |
| Brooke Barry | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.