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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.34+6.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62+4.25vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.29+1.49vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.02+4.20vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.01+0.32vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.43-1.84vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College0.60+2.40vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.13-3.06vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.99-0.78vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.06-4.80vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.57-1.45vs Predicted
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12McGill University-0.31+0.07vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.14-2.08vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.12-3.18vs Predicted
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15Boston University-1.11-1.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.340.1%1st Place
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6.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.1%1st Place
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4.49Brown University2.290.2%1st Place
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8.2Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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5.32Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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4.16Dartmouth College2.430.2%1st Place
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9.4Dartmouth College0.600.0%1st Place
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4.94Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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8.22Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.990.0%1st Place
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5.2Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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12.07McGill University-0.310.0%1st Place
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10.92University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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10.82Northeastern University0.120.0%1st Place
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13.33Boston University-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Barry | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Julia Conneely | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Katharine Doble | 15.3% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Jensen | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Katherine McNamara | 11.2% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| bella casaretto | 16.1% | 15.3% | 17.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% |
| Lauren Russler | 13.7% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emma Wang | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Lucy Meagher | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% |
| Tessa Hason | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 15.7% | 24.2% | 19.1% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 10.7% |
| Sylvia Burns | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 18.0% | 8.1% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 18.3% | 50.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.