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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.05+8.35vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+6.20vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+2.73vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.66+2.81vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.18+3.62vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.51+1.42vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.89-0.96vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.90+1.69vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.38-1.08vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+0.37vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.55-3.53vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.41-3.86vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.13-4.24vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.64-3.48vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University2.38-3.35vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.78-5.65vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.77+0.39vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.03-1.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.35Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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5.73St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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6.81Connecticut College3.660.1%1st Place
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8.62Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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7.42University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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6.04Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.69Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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10.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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7.47Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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8.14Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.76Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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10.52University of Rhode Island2.640.0%1st Place
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11.65Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.35University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.0%1st Place
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17.39Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
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16.56Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Shea | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ike Babbitt | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Marshall | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Renehan | 4.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Factor | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Meleney | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Burd | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lyle Fielding | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 17.6% | 5.1% | 0.7% |
| Matt Foster | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 24.3% | 68.9% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 54.9% | 29.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.