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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Western Washington University0.54+5.43vs Predicted
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2University of Washington1.15+2.38vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University0.50+3.41vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.31+2.74vs Predicted
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5University of Oregon0.11+3.13vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.18+1.45vs Predicted
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7University of Washington-1.39-0.12vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.06+0.12vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.83-5.98vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University-0.38-0.51vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University-1.06-0.26vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon-1.36-0.39vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-2.48vs Predicted
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14University of Saint Thomas0.99-8.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43Western Washington University0.546.8%1st Place
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4.38University of Washington1.1514.8%1st Place
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6.41Northeastern University0.506.6%1st Place
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6.74Western Washington University0.316.8%1st Place
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8.13University of Oregon0.113.9%1st Place
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7.45University of Washington0.184.9%1st Place
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6.88University of Washington-1.395.8%1st Place
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8.12University of Washington-0.064.0%1st Place
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3.02University of Washington1.8328.6%1st Place
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9.49Northwestern University-0.382.8%1st Place
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10.74Western Washington University-1.061.6%1st Place
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11.61University of Oregon-1.361.0%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.8%1st Place
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5.08University of Saint Thomas0.9910.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Gerber | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Nairn | 14.8% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Emily Avey | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Jaden Unruh | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Emily Smith | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Enzo Dougherty | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% |
| Benjamin Stone | 28.6% | 21.9% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Warfel | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 9.8% |
| Peter Hall | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 18.5% | 23.4% |
| Molly McLeod | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 20.6% | 35.3% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 18.4% | 19.9% |
| Rachel Bartel | 10.8% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.