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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+7.16vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University2.38+9.04vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.41+4.52vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+3.68vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.89+0.67vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.90+3.48vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.66-0.44vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.05+0.66vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.55-1.85vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.13-1.60vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.51-3.72vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.64-1.78vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-7.61vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.38-6.30vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.78-5.25vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.03-0.19vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.77-0.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.16Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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11.04Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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7.52Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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5.67Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.48Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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6.56Connecticut College3.660.1%1st Place
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8.66Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.15Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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8.4Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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7.28University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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10.22University of Rhode Island2.640.0%1st Place
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5.39St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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9.75University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.0%1st Place
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15.81Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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16.51Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 21.4% | 5.7% | 0.1% |
| John Meleney | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ike Babbitt | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Marshall | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Burd | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Factor | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lyle Fielding | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Foster | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 55.8% | 30.9% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 26.3% | 68.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.