← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.55+5.29vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.54+4.31vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+4.09vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.37+2.65vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73+4.18vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.45+0.52vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.22+0.32vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.97+0.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy0.86+3.61vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy-0.11+5.58vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.38-4.17vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.28-0.66vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University1.51-3.03vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.42-3.87vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy1.87-6.36vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-3.72vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-3.97vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy0.70-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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6.31U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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7.09St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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6.65Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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9.18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
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6.52Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.32U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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8.22Georgetown University1.970.1%1st Place
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12.61U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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15.58U. S. Naval Academy-0.110.0%1st Place
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6.83Georgetown University2.380.1%1st Place
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11.34Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.97Georgetown University1.510.0%1st Place
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10.13St. Mary's College of Maryland1.420.0%1st Place
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8.64U. S. Naval Academy1.870.1%1st Place
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12.28St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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13.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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13.0U. S. Naval Academy0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Raam Fox | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Enzo Menditto | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tanner Kelly | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Smith | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 8.5% |
| Darby Dryden | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 46.9% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Xavier Stoldt | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Henry Haddon | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% |
| Teddy Martin | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Lina Carper | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 9.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 15.6% | 11.9% |
| Josephine Sherry | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 11.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.