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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+7.09vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+3.22vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.66+3.60vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.78+5.84vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.41+2.31vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.89-0.01vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+0.66vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.51-1.05vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.38-1.21vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.13-1.64vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.55-3.86vs Predicted
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12Stanford University2.90-2.69vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.05-4.03vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.64-3.63vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.03+0.74vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University2.37-4.82vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.77-0.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.09Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.22St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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6.6Connecticut College3.660.1%1st Place
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9.84University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.0%1st Place
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7.31Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.99Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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7.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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6.95University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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7.79U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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8.36Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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7.14Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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9.31Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
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8.97Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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10.37University of Rhode Island2.640.0%1st Place
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15.74Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
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11.18Northwestern University2.370.0%1st Place
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16.49Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Marshall | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matt Foster | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| John Meleney | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ike Babbitt | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Factor | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Burd | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Mullins | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Lyle Fielding | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 15.3% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 54.3% | 31.4% |
| Michael Cornew | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 21.5% | 5.5% | 0.2% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 26.8% | 67.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.