Race 1A

george-morris

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emily Dellenbaugh 7.9% 7.5% 8.7% 9.8% 8.5% 8.6% 8.3% 8.7% 9.9% 8.3% 6.9% 4.9% 2.0%
Quentin Chafee 5.6% 5.4% 7.0% 7.0% 6.6% 7.2% 8.9% 8.2% 8.7% 10.0% 10.9% 11.2% 3.3%
Max Nickbarg 7.6% 10.2% 9.1% 9.4% 9.2% 10.0% 8.6% 10.0% 7.9% 6.9% 6.3% 3.5% 1.3%
Alex Cook 12.9% 11.8% 13.0% 10.3% 10.7% 8.3% 8.5% 8.1% 5.6% 5.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4%
Ben Greenfield 15.7% 15.4% 13.4% 10.2% 10.7% 10.0% 7.0% 5.7% 4.5% 3.1% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4%
Connor Needham 8.8% 8.9% 8.0% 9.4% 9.1% 8.9% 9.0% 8.6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.4% 6.5% 1.3%
Krysta Rohde 9.0% 7.4% 6.1% 8.3% 6.8% 8.1% 8.7% 9.1% 8.8% 9.1% 8.3% 8.5% 1.8%
Colin Santangelo 4.7% 5.7% 6.7% 6.3% 5.0% 7.3% 9.1% 8.0% 7.9% 10.6% 12.5% 11.6% 4.6%
Andrew Meleny 5.3% 4.9% 4.0% 5.6% 6.6% 7.1% 5.8% 6.4% 11.1% 10.8% 10.5% 15.2% 6.7%
Bernie Roesler 10.4% 8.8% 10.8% 10.1% 9.5% 8.0% 8.6% 8.6% 6.4% 7.2% 6.2% 4.3% 1.1%
Kyle Carney 8.0% 8.3% 8.2% 8.2% 9.1% 8.5% 9.9% 8.3% 9.6% 7.4% 6.3% 5.9% 2.3%
Jared Dunn 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 2.8% 2.0% 4.1% 5.7% 10.1% 67.3%
Conor Lodge 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 6.3% 6.8% 5.9% 7.5% 9.7% 9.7% 13.6% 16.0% 7.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.