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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.34+6.97vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.78+8.36vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.78vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.90+5.48vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.47+2.23vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.32+1.86vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.35+0.68vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+0.12vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.13-0.46vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.05-0.75vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.30vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-0.62vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.05-0.13vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-1.39vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-5.69vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.51-8.87vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.89vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.10-5.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.97Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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10.36Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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7.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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9.48Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.23University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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7.86Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.68SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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8.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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8.54University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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9.25University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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6.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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11.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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12.87Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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12.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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7.13Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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14.11SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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12.62SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winborne Majette | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Beckett Kumler | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| JJ Klempen | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Will Murray | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Lars Osell | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.5% |
| Jack Merrill | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 14.6% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 29.5% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 14.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.