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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.34+6.91vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.73vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.05+6.19vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.47+3.17vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+4.34vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.05+7.01vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.13+1.61vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+4.84vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.90+0.59vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.32-1.91vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.33vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-0.69vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.78-3.09vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.54vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.51-7.96vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.10-3.14vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-8.63vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.91Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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6.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.19University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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9.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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13.01Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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8.61University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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12.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.59Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.09Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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9.91Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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7.46SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.04Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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12.86SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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8.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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13.89SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winborne Majette | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Will Murray | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Jackson McAliley | 9.2% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Jack Merrill | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 18.3% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 17.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Lars Osell | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 7.8% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 16.4% |
| JJ Klempen | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 16.5% | 25.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.