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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+5.84vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.34+5.96vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.88vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.90+5.50vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.78+5.07vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.47+1.24vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.05+6.00vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.32-0.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+2.02vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.10+2.98vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-1.44vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+1.19vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.76+0.83vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.13-5.64vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.05-6.10vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-8.34vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-8.66vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.51-11.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.96Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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7.88SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.5Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.07Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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7.24University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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13.0Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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7.78Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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12.98SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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9.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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13.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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13.83SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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8.9University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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7.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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6.9Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Jack Merrill | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Lars Osell | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 17.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 20.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 26.6% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Benjamin Honig | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| JJ Klempen | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.