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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.90+8.46vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.34+5.70vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.49vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+5.02vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.05+3.64vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.78+3.85vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.05+5.75vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+2.61vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.63vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.47-2.75vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.04+1.89vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.51-4.80vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.13-4.78vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.76-0.59vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.10-2.52vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.32-8.35vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.35-9.36vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-10.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.46Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.7Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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6.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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8.64University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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9.85Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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12.75Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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12.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.25University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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12.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.040.0%1st Place
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7.2Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.22University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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13.41SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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12.48SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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7.65Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.64SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Winborne Majette | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Jack Merrill | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 16.2% |
| Lars Osell | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 13.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 17.6% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 23.2% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 13.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.