← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cornell University2.32+6.83vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.34+5.69vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.47vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+3.20vs Predicted
-
5Fordham University1.78+4.72vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College0.76+7.80vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+2.12vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University2.51-1.25vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College2.35-1.68vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.13-1.29vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania2.05-2.17vs Predicted
-
12University of Pennsylvania2.47-4.69vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.04-0.36vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University1.05-1.57vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-2.36vs Predicted
-
16Fordham University1.90-6.67vs Predicted
-
17SUNY Maritime College1.10-4.31vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-7.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.83Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
-
7.69Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
-
6.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
7.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
9.72Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
-
13.8SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
-
9.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
-
6.75Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
-
7.32SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
8.71University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
-
8.83University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
-
7.31University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
-
12.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.040.0%1st Place
-
12.43Cornell University1.050.0%1st Place
-
12.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
-
9.33Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
-
12.69SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
-
10.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Will Murray | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 16.4% | 25.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Benjamin Honig | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Jackson McAliley | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 14.1% |
| Jack Merrill | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 14.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 14.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 14.2% |
| Lars Osell | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.