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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.51+2.86vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.37+5.46vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+2.96vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.98+8.46vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02+3.63vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia1.83+7.16vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-0.18vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.79+1.48vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.73+0.74vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38-2.50vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.34+0.44vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.84-2.29vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.26-5.39vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.85-1.24vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University1.41-0.51vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia3.54-9.29vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.79-7.25vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.69-4.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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7.46U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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5.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.1%1st Place
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12.46St. Mary's College of Maryland1.980.0%1st Place
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8.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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13.16University of Virginia1.830.0%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Pennsylvania2.790.0%1st Place
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9.74Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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11.44Georgetown University2.340.0%1st Place
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9.71Georgetown University2.840.0%1st Place
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7.61St. Mary's College of Maryland3.260.1%1st Place
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12.76Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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14.49Georgetown University1.410.0%1st Place
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6.71University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Naval Academy2.790.0%1st Place
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13.46University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Bolger | 21.3% | 18.1% | 16.3% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Sam Padnos | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ainsley Thomson | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 11.4% |
| Evan Siepert | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Madeline Gill | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 16.2% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Johnson | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Alexander Sachs | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Ike Babbitt | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Simon Chivi | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% |
| Michael Schalka | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Gordon Lamphere | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| John O'Riordan | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 12.0% |
| Iacopo Lash | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 18.2% | 28.6% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| James Allsopp | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| William Pilling | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 15.3% | 17.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.