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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.27+6.82vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.93+9.25vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.58+4.57vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.26+6.93vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.38+3.05vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University-1.38+3.80vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.06+0.62vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.54+3.48vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.70+4.97vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.83-0.83vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.45-0.27vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.42-7.00vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.30-8.76vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.39-6.91vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-5.69vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University0.87-3.70vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-9.24vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.17-1.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Georgetown University2.275.8%1st Place
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11.25University of Miami1.932.4%1st Place
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7.57Boston College2.586.5%1st Place
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10.93Old Dominion University1.263.2%1st Place
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8.05College of Charleston2.385.5%1st Place
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9.8Jacksonville University-1.384.5%1st Place
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7.62Bowdoin College2.066.9%1st Place
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11.48Fordham University1.542.3%1st Place
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13.97University of Wisconsin0.701.4%1st Place
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9.17Tufts University1.835.2%1st Place
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10.73University of South Florida1.452.5%1st Place
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5.0Yale University2.4214.3%1st Place
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4.24Stanford University3.3018.9%1st Place
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7.09Dartmouth College2.397.5%1st Place
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9.31University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.8%1st Place
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12.3North Carolina State University0.872.5%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.325.8%1st Place
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16.92University of Texas-1.170.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Barnard | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% |
| Peter Busch | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 1.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Emily Allen | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 2.0% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 27.5% | 12.4% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 1.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 14.3% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 18.9% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Brelage | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 15.3% | 4.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 10.3% | 72.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.