← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+10.06vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.40vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.69+0.75vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania1.88+2.04vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University1.93+0.75vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania1.15+2.60vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania2.18-1.87vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University1.57-1.07vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+0.23vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College0.19+1.66vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University0.41+0.10vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University0.85-2.52vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.19+2.08vs Predicted
-
14University of Pennsylvania1.41-6.37vs Predicted
-
15Fordham University0.99-5.96vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-3.23vs Predicted
-
17Fordham University-0.75-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
11.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
-
5.4University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
-
3.75Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
-
6.04University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
-
5.75Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
8.6University of Pennsylvania1.150.0%1st Place
-
5.13University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
-
6.93Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
-
9.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
-
11.66SUNY Maritime College0.190.0%1st Place
-
11.1Cornell University0.410.0%1st Place
-
9.48Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
-
15.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.190.0%1st Place
-
7.63University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
-
9.04Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
-
12.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
-
14.34Fordham University-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 3.8% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 20.7% | 18.1% | 16.1% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Margaux Cowles | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 11.4% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brook Wood | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% |
| Kit Harned | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% |
| Maya Conway | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 9.1% | 19.7% | 48.5% |
| Adra Ivancich | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 17.4% | 15.3% | 10.1% |
| Samantha Hemans | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 25.1% | 28.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.