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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+4.28vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.93+3.73vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+0.76vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.88+2.05vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.99+3.95vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.15+2.66vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.41+0.56vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+0.89vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.19+2.85vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.85-0.60vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-3.80vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.41-1.07vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-0.27vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.18-8.78vs Predicted
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15Fordham University-0.75-0.86vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.55vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.19-1.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.28University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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5.73Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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3.76Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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6.05University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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8.95Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.66University of Pennsylvania1.150.0%1st Place
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7.56University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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8.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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11.85SUNY Maritime College0.190.0%1st Place
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9.4Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.2Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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10.93Cornell University0.410.0%1st Place
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12.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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5.22University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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14.14Fordham University-0.750.0%1st Place
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11.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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15.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 12.7% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 19.9% | 18.4% | 17.4% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Margaux Cowles | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Adra Ivancich | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brook Wood | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 10.7% | 4.8% |
| Maya Conway | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Kit Harned | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 16.1% | 16.9% | 11.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 12.0% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Hemans | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 24.2% | 26.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 4.1% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 18.6% | 48.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.